opinion
BY MATI TUCHFELD
T he current election campaign is giving many
people a sense that, unlike the last three years,
there won’t be another on its heels. This time, things
will be different, and not only if Benjamin Netanyahu
and the right-wing bloc secure 61 seats. This time,
something will happen that will upset everything
and allow the system to put a stable, functioning
government in place.

No one can explain exactly what this will be.

Will the haredim leave the right-wing bloc? Will
there be a revolt in the Likud? Will a party from the
anti-Netanyahu bloc give in and join a Netanyahu
government? It’s not clear, but that doesn’t change
people’s sense of things.

This sense of change in the air was the primary
motivation behind the New Hope-Blue and White
merger. Of course, there was also the strong sense
that New Hope wouldn’t make it past the elec-
toral threshold by itself. But for some time, Blue
and White leader Benny Gantz has been walking
around feeling like he missed out, that his com-
mitment to his bloc has come at a very high price.

He is the only coalition party leader who wasn’t
promoted, even though he was also the only one
who could have switched sides.

Gantz turned down offers of a rotating premier-
ship, despite warnings from the haredi parties. Not
out of any heroic sense of devotion, but because
he was afraid of the media. He had already gone
over to the other side once and suffered for it.

But Gantz hasn’t shelved his dream of becom-
ing prime minister. He thinks that this election
could bring him the opportunity of his life. While
Netanyahu and Lapid will prefer to fight their
battles in public, Gantz thinks that the real fight
isn’t between Lapid and Netanyahu, but rather
between himself and Netanyahu. He believes that
Netanyahu will have one chance to form a govern-
ment, and if he can’t, the mandate will go to Gantz.

Gideon Sa’ar sees things the same way. If he
wants to be part of a future coalition, he should
bet on Gantz, not Lapid. They both saw the strong
message coming from Netanyahu’s circle over
these past two weeks, which was a direct attack
on Lapid, saying he will form a government with
the Joint List.

On one hand, Netanyahu knows that brutal,
extremist attacks are off-putting to the moderate
right, the ones who voted for Yamina and New
Hope in the last election. Netanyahu wouldn’t waste
much time on them if he wasn’t in critical need of
their votes. To win their support, he needs to tone it
down and muzzle the people in the Likud who spark
16 JULY 21, 2022 | JEWISHEXPONENT.COM
antagonism like David Amsalem or Miri Regev.

On the other hand, Netanyahu can pick up other
votes, like the people who didn’t vote last time
around. The way to wake up apathetic Likudniks
is to lay into his rivals: the left, Lapid, the legal sys-
tem, the media and all the rest of the right’s sworn
enemies. The problem is that a campaign tailored
to those voters will repel the others and vice versa.

Over the last two weeks, Netanyahu has found
the perfect formula: the claim that Lapid cannot
form a government without the Joint List. This mes-
sage has no need for crude rhetoric or hyperbole,
and all the studio pundits will have to agree with it,
because it happens to be true.

For Netanyahu, the Gantz-Sa’ar merger is a com-
plication. It’s a third possibility for a government,
without the Joint List. Right now, as long as Gantz
and Sa’ar are polling in the double digits, Gantz’s
candidacy for prime minister can gain traction in
terms of their message. If they poll in the single
digits, they’ll need to rethink their strategy. We’ve
already had a prime minister with only six man-
dates, but it wasn’t a success that Gantz can point
to as an example.

Netanyahu can try to paint the new Gantz-Sa’ar
list as part of the left, and possibly take a few of the
right-wing voters Sa’ar brought with him. The pre-
vailing belief, however, is that Netanyahu will focus
on criticizing Lapid.

Still, Gantz has a long way to go before he
becomes prime minister. Assuming he isn’t tempted
to join forces with the Joint List, conditions will
have to be right for him to execute his plan. First,
the haredim would have to defect from the right-
wing bloc. This might be easier for United Torah
Judaism, but when it comes to Shas, it’s much more
complicated. The UTJ haredim, particularly those from the
Degel Hatorah faction, have already made it clear
to Netanyahu that, if it is up to them, there will be no
sixth election. They want a government, with him
or without him. At the moment, “without him” looks
impossible, but both UTJ and Blue and White think
that if Netanyahu fails to form a government this
time around, something will shift and the Likud will
become restive. There could even be a party revolt.

And they believe there is already a coalition that
could be formed. It includes the haredi factions and
Blue and White, without radical players like Yisrael
Beiteinu, Ra’am or the Joint List. The Likud would
share power with Gantz, but not Lapid. This, UTJ
and Blue and White think, could change the map.

And if it doesn’t, if Netanyahu loses, they think he
will double down on his attempts to reach a plea
deal in his corruption case, which could force him
to leave politics. If they’re wrong, Gantz can forget
about being prime minister, and there would be yet
another election.

The primary motivation of all the parties outside
the right-wing camp is to keep Netanyahu out of
government. If it comes down to forming a shaky
coalition, another election or joining a Netanyahu
government, they would all opt for one of the first
two options. At least, everyone but Ayelet Shaked,
whom the “anyone but Bibi” camp counts as part of
Netanyahu’s bloc.

Meanwhile, this week Labor members will vote
between current party leader Meirav Michaeli and
party secretary Eran Hermoni, who is much pre-
ferred by the old guard. In recent years, Hermoni
has fought against attempts to change the party’s
constitution, empty the party institutions of value
and take away any vestiges of democracy. For the
most part, he has failed. The traditional party activ-
ists see him as a better representative of Labor
values, but Michaeli as the one who can bring in
the votes.

Unlike Hermoni, Michaeli continues to insist that
Labor will not run on a joint ticket with any other left-
wing party, despite warnings from senior Meretz
officials, who are following the polls with concern.

After Meretz leader Nitzan Horowitz resigned, Yair
Golan appears to be the last man standing, and
with all due respect to Golan, despite his venom-
ous attacks on the right, many in the party still see
him as a symbol of the “occupation” and militarism
in Israeli society.

The Meretz top brass know their voters, so they
are doing everything they can to persuade former
party leader Zehava Gal-On to come back and take
the wheel. Since she resigned from politics, Gal-
On’s comments have become harsher and more
bitter, but for the Meretz leadership she would still
be preferable to a former general. JE
Mati Tuchfeld is Israel Hayom’s senior political
correspondent. This article was originally pub-
lished by Israel Hayom.

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We Are at a Critical Junction
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