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www.jewishexponent.com 10
FEBRUARY 4, 2021
2020 Polling
Errors, Dissected
N AT I O N AL
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H EADLINES
JEWISH EXPONENT
WHEN IT COMES to the 2020
presidential election, it’s all over
but the shouting. Joe Biden has
taken offi ce as the 46th presi-
dent of the United States. But
what actually happened?
Where did Democrats
make gains, and where did
Republicans do the same, and
why? How can it be that, in
many cases, overestimation of
the Democratic margin was
even more egregious than the
much-discussed mistakes in
2016? And what do the fi ner
points of voting and polling
patterns mean for Jews?
All these questions were the
subject of a Jewish Battleground
Coalition webinar hosted by
Jewish Democratic groups in
Wisconsin, Texas, Minnesota,
Michigan, Georgia, Florida and
Pennsylvania. Th e two speakers
at “Blue Wave/Red Shift : Trends
in Polling & the Jewish Vote
from 2020 & Beyond” discussed
the 2020 election polling via
Zoom on Jan. 27.

Brandishing a seminar’s
load of charts, graphs and maps,
pollsters Jefrey Pollock and Ira
Sheskin tried to explain it all.

Democratic Jewish Outreach of
Pennsylvania Chair Jill Zipin
moderated the event along
with Samuel Edelman of the
Israel on Campus Coalition.

Pollock, who is a sought-
aft er pollster for Democratic
candidates and liberal organi-
zations, didn’t off er comforting
assessments for Democrats.

Biden and the Democrats
may have won the House,
the Senate and the presi-
dency, Pollock said, but the
monumental GOP turnout
ensured that the Democrats’
majority was the slimmest of
the postwar era. It wouldn’t
have taken much of a fl ip for
a radically diff erent outcome;
according to Pollock, Biden
wouldn’t have been elected
if the pandemic hadn’t taken
discussion away from the
strength of the economy prior
to March 2020.

“If you look at the numbers
there, we’re talking about
44,000 votes,” Pollock said,
directing his audience to a red
and blue map. “If they had
fl ipped the other way, Biden
loses, and Donald Trump is
president of the United States.”
Dramatic overestimation
of the Democratic margin by
public polls in key states, Pollock
said, was avoided by private
polling by outfi ts like his own,
Global Strategy Group. Still,
questions remain as to why, aft er
four years of tinkering by public
pollsters, an error of more than
six points in Wisconsin in 2016
became an error of almost eight
points in 2020.

Pol lock
d iscou nted
commonly held explanations
about Trump voters reluc-
tant to tell pollsters about their
preferences, pointing out that
similar overestimations of the
Democratic margins were made
in races featuring Republican
senatorial candidates like Steve
Daines and Joni Ernst.

“Th ere’s no evidence for a
shy Trump voter,” Pollock said.

John McLaughlin, whose
McLaughlin & Associates
has polled for the Republican
Jewish Coalition, Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
and Hungarian Prime Minister
Viktor Orbán, was not at the
webinar, but shared Pollock’s
skepticism about the “shy
Trump voter.”
But where Pollock sees
f lawed
methodology as
the reason for bad polling,
McLaughlin sees a delib-
erate attempt to undercount
Republican voters. McLaughlin
accused numerous polling
See Polling, Page 23
JEWISHEXPONENT.COM