opinion
Will Marwan Barghouti Be the
Next Palestinian President?
T he first thing one sees after crossing the
Qalandiya checkpoint from Jerusalem en route
to Ramallah is a huge mural of Marwan Barghouti,
the imprisoned Fatah leader who is seen by many
Palestinians as the successor to Mahmoud Abbas.

Next to Barghouti’s portrait is that of the late
Yasser Arafat. Placing these two fi gures together
implies an obvious connection; both are revered for
their struggles against Israel.

According to a poll of Palestinian public opin-
ion conducted in September, if presidential elec-
tions were held for the Palestinian Authority and
Mahmoud Abbas did not run, Barghouti would
receive 41% of the vote; Ismail Haniyeh, the inter-
national leader of Hamas, would receive 17%;
ex-Fatah leader Muhammad Dahlan, 5%; the leader
of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya al-Sinwar, 4%; and Abbas’s
confi dant Hussein al-Sheikh only 2%.

It’s unclear when presidential elections for the
P.A. will take place. Abbas, who was elected to
offi ce in 2005, postponed indefi nitely the vote
scheduled for May 2021. But this is not the only
barrier facing Barghouti.

Once an energetic student leader from the West
Bank village of Kobar, Barghouti rose to become a
leader in Fatah’s military wing, and was arrested
20 years ago in Ramallah by the Israeli Defense
Forces. He was tried and convicted on fi ve counts
of murder in an Israeli civilian court, unlike most
Palestinians, who are tried in Israeli military courts.

He was found guilty of authorizing and orga-
nizing the murder of a Greek Orthodox monk, a
shooting near the settlement of Givat Ze’ev in
which an Israeli civilian was killed, and the 2002
Seafood Market restaurant attack in Tel Aviv in
which three civilians were killed. Security sources
in Israel said that among the documents the IDF
found during raids on the Ramallah offi ces of the
Tanzim (Fatah’s military branch) were memos that
showed Barghouti’s direct involvement in planning
terrorist attacks.

Barghouti claimed that he supported armed
resistance to the Israeli occupation yet condemned
attacks against civilians inside the 1967 Green
Line. He refused to recognize the legitimacy of
the court and waived his right to defend himself.

The question of his release was widely discussed
in Israel and the West Bank immediately after the
trial. Yet in 2006, Knesset Member Avi Dichter, who
had served as the director of the Israel Security
Agency (Shin Bet), said sarcastically during a TV
interview I conducted with him that “Barghouti can
certainly expect an earlier release—after some 100
16 DECEMBER 15, 2022 | JEWISHEXPONENT.COM
Marwan Barghouti
years or so.” Today his release seems no more likely
than it did 16 years ago.

During the fi rst years of his imprisonment,
Barghouti remained active politically. He nego-
tiated a unilateral truce declared by the main
Palestinian factions in June 2003, during the
Second Intifada. He drafted the so-called Prisoners’
Document in 2006 (in this document all imprisoned
Palestinian leaders of all factions called to estab-
lish a Palestinian state within the pre-1967 borders
and demanded the right of return for refugees). In
2007 Barghouti was involved in the creation of the
Mecca Agreement that intended to heal the split
between Fatah and Hamas.

In recent years, however, Barghouti has seldom
made important statements on the burning issues
that preoccupy the Palestinians. He often empha-
sizes in general terms the importance of national
reconciliation, and just recently called for dates to
be set for presidential and parliamentary elections.

“The lack of elections for (almost) 20 years makes
the Palestinians live in a dangerous political vac-
uum,” he explained in a letter to his wife Fadwa.

Yet, he has not uttered a word about corruption or
violations of civil rights in the P.A., the future of a
two-state solution, or other issues.

While there is no doubt that for many Palestinians,
including the youth, Barghouti is a powerful sym-
bol of resistance, it is unclear how well the
imprisoned leader would do in managing internal
Palestinian politics. Sources in Ramallah say that
while Barghouti has the sympathy of the street, he
hasn’t been active or clear enough about his goals,
ideology or agenda. Barghouti’s relations with the
Fatah Party and the level of support that he enjoys
there are also foggy.

According to senior analysts and friends who
preferred to remain anonymous, “We knew who
Barghouti was years ago. Little is known about his
ideology today. He was a popular student leader
and an aide of Arafat. But is he ready for the heavy
burden of responsibility as president? Will he be
able to unite the Fatah ranks? Or will he use this
opportunity to just bargain his release out of jail?”
During the preparations for the parliamentary
elections last year, Barghouti decided to run on
an independent list with his wife Fadwa and
Yasser Arafat’s nephew, Nasser al-Qudwa. Over the
years, Abbas has successfully purged the leader-
ship of both the Palestine Liberation Organization
and the P.A. of Barghouti’s sympathizers. Apart
from Barghouti, there are many Fatah contend-
ers for the role of a successor to Abbas, such
as Jibril Rajoub, Hussein al-Sheikh and probably
Muhammad Dahlan, now based in the United Arab
Emirates. Some Palestinian analysts predicted last
year that parliamentary elections would lead to
another victory for Hamas at the expense of Fatah.

From the Israeli perspective, Barghouti’s winning
future Palestinian elections would be dangerous for
several reasons. Since currently there is no scenario
for his release, if Barghouti were elected president
of the P.A., someone else would need to govern in
his name. The chance of chaos and anarchy would
increase and the P.A.’s legitimacy would continue
to decrease, to the benefi t of Hamas. At the same
time, the international pressure on Israel would
grow; Israel could fi nd itself in the shoes of the
South African regime that jailed Nelson Mandela.

Interestingly, the Palestinian media rarely draw this
comparison between the two men, while the inter-
national and Israeli press often make use of it.

In short, Israel would fi nd itself in an impossible
situation. The Palestinians also would be faced
with the diffi cult reality of having a symbol of
resistance instead of a political leader who is able
to govern, negotiate and make deals. Combine this
messy situation with the emerging far-right Israeli
government and you get a perfect storm. In fact, a
perfect storm may hit Israel and the P.A. whenever
Abbas departs the scene and the battle for his suc-
cession offi cially starts. JE
Ksenia Svetlova is a research fellow at the Institute
for Policy and Strategy at Reichman University (IDC
Herzliya) and a director of the program on Israel–
Middle East relations at Mitvim Institute. She is a for-
mer Knesset member. This op-ed was fi rst published
by The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune.

BDalim / WikiCommons
By Ksenia Svetlova