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13 parties are projected to make
it into Knesset. Each party’s
share of the parliament could
change slightly after absentee
ballots are counted.

To lead Israel’s government,
a candidate must assemble a
majority coalition of at least
61 lawmakers, which is gener-
ally made up of several parties.

Should no candidate be able
to assemble a coalition, which
occurred twice in 2019, Israel
holds a repeat election. The
results don’t point to any
obvious majority coalition.

Several local scholars said
that the likelihood of another
election in the near future
remains high.

“I would not rule that out
at all,” said Michal Raucher, a
professor in the Department
of Jewish Studies at Rutgers
University. Lior B. Sternfeld, a professor
of history and Jewish studies at
Penn State University, believes
that the Knesset will dissolve
itself again with the next four
to five months.

“There is a very good chance
that there will be a fifth election,”
said Asaf Romirowsky, execu-
tive director of Scholars for
Peace in the Middle East and
a fellow at the Philadelphia-
based Middle East Forum.

Netanyahu’s Likud is
expected to be the largest
party, with around 30 seats —
smaller than its current size
of 36. Raucher explained that
the comparatively smaller
number of right-wing parties
that took part in the most
recent election could make it
easier for Netanyahu to form
a coalition this time around,
though nothing is guaranteed.

The process of building a coali-
tion is like entering a “bazaar
in Tehran,” in Romirowsky’s
words, and the haggling over
concessions and policy prefer-
ences is about to begin.

The next-largest party is
projected to be the centrist
Yesh Atid, an opponent of
JEWISHEXPONENT.COM Lior B. Sternfeld, a professor of
history and Jewish studies at Penn
State University
Photo by Michael T. Davis
message is being received by
more Israelis this time around,”
Raucher said, referring to the
Labor leader.

Romirowsky, on the other
hand, was more skeptical
about the prospects of the left
in Israel.

“They don’t amount to,
really, any counterweight to
Netanyahu and [Leader of
the Opposition Yair] Lapid,”
he said.

On the far right, Religious
Zionism, a party that includes
anti-LGBT politicians and
extremist settlers, was set to
win six seats. Shas, the Sephardi
haredi Orthodox party, was
projected to win nine seats,
while the Ashkenazi haredi
party, United Torah Judaism,
was set to win seven.

Two men who had hoped
to become prime minister saw
disappointing results.

Gideon Saar, a former
member of Likud who broke
away to challenge Netanyahu,
is set to win only six seats.

And Naftali Bennett, a former
Netanyahu deputy, is projected
to win seven seats. Bennett is
largely ideologically aligned
with Netanyahu but has had
a series of disputes with him
and has not committed to
joining a government under
his leadership.

Following the publication
of the final results, Israeli
President Reuven Rivlin will
ask each party to recommend
either Netanyahu or one of his
opponents to form the next
Israeli government. Whoever
gets the most recommenda-
tions then gets several weeks to
assemble a majority coalition.

If they cannot, another party
leader generally gets to try.

So the shape of the next
Israeli government, and the
identity of the person who
leads it, may be unclear for
quite some time. l
Netanyahu, with 17 seats, also
slightly smaller than its current
19 seats.

Blue and White, the party
that nearly beat Netanyahu
last year before joining him in
an ill-fated unity government,
is set to drop from 12 seats
to eight.

The Joint List, an Arab-Israeli
party made up of multiple
factions, is also expected to fall
from 15 seats to six, because
one party broke away this year.

Sternfeld sees this as Arab
voters voicing their displeasure
with the break-up.

Raam, the breakaway, is
an Islamist party that had
discussed allying with either
Netanyahu or his opponents.

It is projected to win as many
as five seats after exit polls
had predicted that it would
fall short.

Israel’s two Jewish left-wing
parties both grew. Labor, the
shrunken party of Israel’s
founders, was projected to win
seven seats, a large jump from
its current two. The left-wing
Meretz was also projected to
grow slightly from four seats
to five.

“Meirav Michaeli’s bold
and outspoken opposition
to Netanyahu and the right jbernstein@jewishexponent.com;
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